By: James Wilt, Policy Development Manager
In the ongoing debate about the $3-billion fossil gas-fired power plant, there are a lot of common talking points circulating claiming this project is the only option or not that bad for the climate. In case you’re confused, curious, or concerned, here are a few key points to keep in mind.
Building the Gas Plant Takes Away $3 Billion That Could Otherwise be Invested in Renewables and Energy Storage
The Province has suggested that the gas plant is “not an alternative to developing renewable energy sources.” Hypothetically, the Province can build as much electricity generation as it pleases. But these are large-scale investments that cost a massive amount of money. The decision to spend $3 billion on a gas-fired power plant—which doesn’t include the lifetime costs of importing fuel to run it—represents an enormous opportunity cost as that money can’t be used to install wind turbines, battery energy storage, and demand reduction technologies. The planned 600 MW of new wind power is a good start but remains insufficient given the need to rapidly electrify transportation, buildings, and industry.
Current Investments in Heat Pumps Aren’t Nearly Ambitious Enough
The government’s election promise to install 5,000 ground-source heat pumps—a crucial technology in reducing peak electricity demand—by 2030 was first announced in Manitoba’s Affordable Energy Plan, released almost 16 months ago. However, there has been no recent update on the status of these installations. The timeline of 2030 is a recent addition to government messaging around this, meaning we may only see an average of 1,000 heat pump installations per year between now and then. Given there are about 500,000 heating customers in Manitoba—including many schools and healthcare facilities that should be prioritized for installations—this plan remains very far from ambitious; Manitoba will need to average 25,000 installations annually between today and 2050 to transform heating into a zero-emissions and highly efficient sector.
The Gas Plant Makes a Net-Zero Electricity Grid By 2035 Impossible
Manitoba’s Path to Net Zero recommitted to reaching a “fully net-zero electricity grid by 2035.” This pledge is incompatible with increased fossil fuel combustion for electricity generation, and claims of eventually transitioning to running the plant with hydrogen or biomethane have no basis in reality. The only way that the government could possibly torque this power plant into aligning with net zero commitments is through large-scale purchases of carbon offsets from companies such as the recently announced Deep Sky direct air capture project in southwestern Manitoba, which have been plagued with technical issues and cannot be banked on.
There is No Guarantee the Gas Plant Will Only Be Used in Emergency Situations
This project has frequently been framed as a “peaker plant” and “emergency backstop” that would only fire up during rare periods of high demand, especially during the coldest hours of the winter. Such use would have marginal impacts on provincial greenhouse gas emissions. But there are several reasons why we should remain cautious about this claim. For one, the sustained droughts and low water levels that have started to hit Manitoba Hydro could easily be used to justify increased use of the new plant beyond its original scope. Another complicating factor is the potential for large and extremely energy-intensive industrial loads to be added to the grid over the next decade, including AI data centres, direct air capture, and even liquefied natural gas exports. And there have been plenty of examples in Ontario of power plants built to only operate during peak periods being run for much more time, with major climate and air pollution impacts.
Manitoba Continues to Underestimate the Readiness of Grid-Scale Batteries
Manitoba continues to downplay the potential role for grid-scale batteries, with Manitoba Hydro proposing only a 5 MW “pilot project” in the next ten years. Such an approach might have been justified several years ago, when grid-scale battery storage was still fairly nascent. But the technology has skyrocketed in scale, sophistication, and cost-effectiveness since then, including for cold-climate regions like Canada. Batteries can be charged during non-peak hours and discharged during peak periods, helping to firm up variable renewables like wind power and reserve adequate water supply in reservoirs for hydroelectric generation when it’s most needed. Wind power, battery storage, and hydro dams are a near-ideal combination of energy resources.
Although the Province continues to double-down on its insistence that this gas plan is the only path forward, this project is not a done deal. If you are concerned about this proposal, join us in writing to the Manitoba government to make your voice heard.